Gas Price Trends & Policy

Crude oil is the largest single input and explains most of the variation over time, which is why pump prices track oil markets with a lag of a few weeks rather than moving the same day. Taxes explain most of the variation across places — the difference between a cheap state and an expensive one is largely a policy decision, not a market one. Refining capacity and regional fuel specifications explain most of what's left, including why some regions reliably price above the national average and why local disruptions can spike one area while the rest of the country is unaffected.

The practical value of understanding this is mostly about timing and expectations. It explains why prices rise faster than they fall, why seasonal patterns repeat, and why waiting for a price drop is usually a worse strategy than the boring ones in the budgeting and tactics categories. The guides below cover each component, plus the historical record for context on whether any given price is actually unusual.